Market Results End Q2, 2018

See our Q2 2018 Quarterly Market Report here.  Find our 2 page model portfolio performance report here.Market results for the 2nd quarter of 2018 were mixed. Emerging Markets were down 8%. Global real estate was up 6%. US Market small stocks (Russell 2000) was up almost 8% with large stocks (S&P 500) up 3% - overall US Markets up 4%. One explanation for the results is the White House attempting to negotiate better trade agreements. Small stocks went up because they are less impacted by international trade and favorably impacted by the new tax code. And emerging market countries perhaps have the most to lose if the USA is successful negotiating more favorable trade agreements. More about the trade negotiations below.O'Reilly Wealth Advisors highly diversified models performance for Q2 ranged from about+ +0.3% to 1% - essentially flat. For the year so far (6 months) model performance ranges from -0.4% to -1.3%.The economy remains very healthy. All measures look good. Of course reports measure what just happened, not what's going to happen, the future.  Sometimes we forget that, then we are surprised when the economy's path changes.The job report July 6 continued the strong monthly job creation that we have been spoiled with for a number of years. There were a couple of stats that I consider positive. It was reported that unemployment went up to 4% from 3.8% despite 213,000 jobs being added - that's because 601,000 people re-entered the workplace looking for work. The job participation rate correspondingly increased to 62.9% from 62.7%. That's very encouraging. More people working! Also the report indicated wages were rising more slowly than hoped. While I hope that everyone I know has healthy increases in compensation - if the labor market increases wages slowly, that assists in holding down inflation. I would be more concerned with inflation hurting the economy if wages were increasing at a fast pace.Some financial academics performed studies attempting to measure the effect of the trade negotiations, if they don't go well and result in higher tariffs across the board. As you would expect, assumptions of higher tariffs result in estimates of lowered economic results. Tariffs are taxes, and higher taxes always hurt the economy. The academics model's predicted fairly small impacts. GDP would still continue increasing but at a slower rate. I predict that we will not get to that point - that leaders on both sides will come to the table.