Evidence Based Investing

401(k): From possible to probable, from reasonable to competitive

So, let’s increase the level of 401(k) oversight beyond what is required! In our view plans should have “competitively low fees” (not just reasonable) and the plan should “make it probable” (not just possible) that an employee in the plan has a reasonable portfolio and therefore experiences solid growth. This can be done with no additional effort!

My "Inner Nerd" Loves When Data Shatters Preconceived Notions

Each time a month finished at a new S&P500 high - they looked at the S&P500 12 months later and found that 80.5% of the time, the S&P500 was higher not lower! When they looked at ALL the months across those 91 years - 74.7% of the time, 12 month later, the S&P500 was higher. Very close numbers, very slightly favoring higher markets when starting at a new high!

2016 Market Review (incl Q4) and Quarterly Model Portfolio Performance

It was a very good year. The small cap premium and value premium were potent in USA with Russell 2000 Value index up 31.7% vs Russell 2000 at 21.3%. In large cap the Russell 1000 Value Index was up 17.3% vs. Russell 1000 at 12.7%. S&P500 11.96%. Our models take advantage of these persistent and pervasive market behaviors by including them at slightly higher market weighting.