Reflections on Life, Markets and Economy

Produce your own 2023 “surprises” by improving your health, happiness and financial life in the areas you can control! If we get surprises showing inflation dropping faster, or, if corporate profits and consumers weather the higher interest rate environment better than expected - the market could go up, at least some. Plus the market looks ahead, so if it becomes evident that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, that will also push stocks higher in advance of those cuts.

Where's the Economy Going - Some Well Thought Out Possibilities

We are entering “Guesses Season” when you can attend nice breakfasts and luncheons when these “guessers” roll out their guesses for 2023 and beyond. Because we do not have access to the actual future results - this is EXACTLY why diversification is so important. It would be extremely aggressive to place bets with your investment funds because you think you know what is going to happen. This has proven over and over and over again to give poor results.

Active Management Hasn’t Shined in Volatile Markets

A historical analysis of active US-domiciled equity funds finds no meaningful relation between market volatility and managers’ success rates; the implication is that traditional active investments may compound your concerns during times of market uncertainty.